The Road Ahead: Breaking Down Charlotte FC's Path to Playoffs

As the 2024 Leagues Cup wraps up, all eyes turn back to the final third of the MLS season. Charlotte FC currently sits in 6th place in the Eastern Conference, well within playoff territory. However, with nine matches left in the season, the unpredictability of MLS means that anything can happen between now and the playoffs.

Here’s a look at Charlotte FC’s journey so far and an analysis of the challenges and opportunities they face as they aim to secure a home playoff match.

The Journey So Far

When Dean Smith took charge, his mission was clear: elevate Charlotte FC to the next level. So far, he’s delivered on that promise. Last season, the team hovered between 8th and 12th place in the Eastern Conference, but under Smith's leadership, they’ve consistently maintained a spot in the top six this year.

The secret to this improvement? Two things Smith emphasized in preseason – attitude and application.

Last season, Charlotte was ranked 21st in MLS for Goals Allowed. This year, they’ve made significant strides, currently boasting the second-best defense in the league, having conceded just 27 goals in 25 matches. Smith’s straightforward approach to defensive organization has given players clear assignments, resulting in a transformation from a leaky team to one now recognized as one of the toughest to play against.

Their resilience is evident in their strong performances against top teams like defending MLS Cup winners Columbus Crew and 2023 Supporters' Shield winners FC Cincinnati. The team has fully embraced Smith’s vision, with captain Ashley Westwood attributing their success to a "doggedness" that has propelled Charlotte to new heights. But the team isn't satisfied yet. Their goal is to finish as high as possible, secure a home playoff match, and make a deep run in the postseason.

“We can take a lot of confidence with what we’ve done in our last three games that were all away from home,” said Smith looking back at the last week of MLS play before Leagues Cup. “All were tough games, and we came out with five points with good performances in all three games as well. We will certainly take the positives from that.”

Throughout the season, Charlotte has shown their resilient mentality as they’ve navigated challenging stretches, even when key players were absent due to international duty, consistently finding ways to earn crucial points.

Summer Reinforcements

The Front Office and Dean Smith took the opportunity throughout the season to thoroughly evaluate the roster, gaining valuable insights that shaped their approach to the summer transfer window. With a solid understanding of the team's strengths and areas for improvement, they were well-prepared to make impactful moves.

The first order of business was bringing back Karol Świderski after his loan spell in Italy. Charlotte welcomed back a proven contributor who had delivered double-digit goal contributions in consecutive seasons. He already has three matches under his belt, including a goal in his first match back against Austin FC right before the Leagues Cup.

He’s just getting started but his return adds firepower alongside Patrick Agyemang, who has emerged as the team’s leading goal scorer and a constant threat to opposing defenses in MLS. Also, the team has yet to witness Swiderski and fellow Designated Player Liel Abada play together on the pitch, which could really change the attacking dynamic of the team.

TRANSFER WINDOW:

A left-footed center-back was another key priority, and the club made a significant addition by signing USMNT and Fulham star Tim Ream. Ream joins an already elite defense, further solidifying a backline that has been among the best in the league. However, the top priority for Charlotte was securing an attacking midfielder who could elevate their offensive game.

After some late-window drama, Charlotte landed their target in Pep Biel, who arrives in the Queen City with an impressive goal-scoring record for a midfielder. Biel is expected to bring creativity and a lethal finishing touch from the center of the pitch, enhancing the attacking trio in front of him.

Now, with these summer reinforcements and a fully healthy squad, Dean Smith is confident in what he describes as “as complete as it’s going to be.” Charlotte FC has strengthened their already formidable defense and significantly bolstered an attack that has, at times, lacked consistency this season.

“The aim of the window is to come out of it looking better,” said Smith, reflecting on the club’s objectives during the transfer window. “Having a better squad and an improved team, and I think we’ve got that.”

Looking Ahead

With around two thirds of the season and transfer window behind them, Charlotte is now focused on capitalizing on the opportunities ahead. Last season, 43 points were enough to secure the 9th spot and make the playoffs, while 49 points secured 7th place and a guaranteed home playoff match in the Eastern Conference.

Charlotte is well on track, already sitting on 37 points. With nine matches left, they have the potential to earn 27 more points, and their remaining schedule looks favorable on paper.

Six of their upcoming opponents are currently ranked below 7th place in the standings. While standings don’t guarantee victories, winning just these matches specifically could propel Charlotte to 55 points, which last season was enough to secure a top four finish in the East.

The more challenging fixtures will be against 4th place New York Red Bulls, 7th place Orlando City, and league-leaders Inter Miami. The matches against RBNY and Orlando are especially crucial given their proximity in the standings, as Charlotte will likely be battling these teams for playoff positioning right up until Decision Day, the final match day of the season. Charlotte will face the Red Bulls first in their return to MLS action on August 24th.

While these games aren’t necessarily must-wins, they will significantly influence how high Charlotte can climb in the standings. Additionally, Charlotte has the advantage of playing five of their last nine games at home, with relatively manageable travel demands for their away matches, none of which involve Western Conference teams and with Montreal being the furthest destination.

Charlotte has a golden opportunity to continue making history this season, with everything still to play for. However, they’ll need to be mentally locked in, as the Eastern Conference is an unforgiving battleground.